A couple of months ago as US made the commando raid that eventually netted bin laden , I was very sure that the event will make Pakistan's rulers and the people both sit up and take notice. This was based on my discussions with my Pakistani friends. Some how I was convinced that such broad minded, educated and balanced group of people will definitely guide their nation towards a course correction. Now it looks like I certainly keep wrong company! Such people do not matter in Pakistan.
Immediately after that event repeated doses of an extremely shrill rhetoric was deployed from the TV studios which guided public discourse towards illegality of the American action and towards casting doubts over Osama's presence in Pakistan itself. There being some merit in both arguments; still one could be excused to think that people who have the power to change and who are pulling all the strings in Pakistan might have realized that they have finally been found out ! Whatever one may say for public consumption, in private even a half wit would have tried to go straight in order to avoid being punished. In normal course albeit. But that is forgetting it is Pakistan we are talking about.
Army is the real ruler of Pakistan and that old joke about it being the only army that has a country does not feel like a joke any more. Are they idiots ? Are they reckless ? Are they both? The short answer is no ! They are actually pretty smart people. Although it does not take a lot but anyone who can continue to pull wool over willing American eyes for so long and get paid by them to do it as a bonus , has to be sharp. Lot of commentators discuss this aspect but most of them focus on what; not on why?
It is kind of easy to say Pakistan is paranoid about India and is trying to avoid getting caught in a pincer from both east and west. The scenario is pretty much possible and their fears are not completely unfounded. This is one of the key reasons for their strategic misadventures. However all concerns are about the methods they have convinced themselves will yield the desired result. Comparatively speaking India is already caught in a pincer ; between a very hostile Pakistan and a super power adversary, China. Why are India's policies looked upon differently by the world than Pakistan's? They themselves are asking this question but unfortunately do not find the answer to their liking.
Even now the policy makers are not willing to take on board the fact that their stealth is exposed. More than anyone else Pakistan should realize that similar to themselves, America is more of a corporation that has got a nation. US inc. will not let go of Afghanistan like they did twenty years ago. They have too much invested in it now. Taliban and ISI proxies will have a tough time repeating their old success. That ,if it happens would actually be catastrophic for Pakistan; sinking them far deeper in trouble. In such a situation the corporation will wrest control by force and Pakistan will be right in the middle of that maelstrom. And I do not see any appreciation of the fact this is not just a bipolar world any more. There are several other forces in the picture and they are not going to be pushovers either. Just banking on nuclear blackmail to get your way through is fraught with huge dangers ; not only to the nuclear deterrent but to the entire nation itself. One can sense Pakistani army taking over direct control of day to day policies and messing with the civilian oversight again. Specially the way Husain Haqqani has been eased out of Washington D.C.. At the same time Pakistan's other ambassadors are being chopped and changed in droves as we speak. And the way zardari has suddenly developed heart trouble and fled the country ostensibly for treatment gives a lot of weight to the theory that Pakistan army has staged a soft coup while keeping a civilian facade.
Without taking anything away from the 26 odd servicemen who got killed in the recent Nato attack, one must ask why Pakistan has not shown such a strong reaction when several times more civilians were the victims ? The real truth may never be known but the Nato story that those gunships fired in support of their ground troops who were coming under fire from or close to Pakistan army posts , is very plausible. Specially to an Indian ear . Providing covering fire to retreating or infiltrating Islamic terrorist bands is an old and well worn trick that Pakistani army posts have been using in Kashmir sector for ever and ever. It comes as no surprise that they were using it in the west too.
On the other hand their contention that NATO attacked these post without a good reason may also have a grain of truth in it. However if that was the case ,Pakistan's reactions are bewildering to say the least! If this was a warning shot across their bows by NATO; why have they created such intense war hysteria among their populace ? What is it they are guilty of? What are they hiding from their own population? Blocking supply routes gives them practically zero leverage. Already over 60% of NATO supplies are routed through air or "northern routes", not Pakistan. NATO has been quitely preparing for this day for most of last year or so. Reportedly they have six months supplies in hand. They are not breaking any sweat! Retaking Shamsi airbase may put some temporary breaks on drones but one shudders to think what other alternatives Nato has access to. Long range stealth bombers; missiles.....,it can soon turn into Pakistan's worst nightmare! Why is it hard to understand that a negotiated, peaceful and independent Afghanistan is in everyone's best interests.
Of all the stupid things one could have done the worst was boycotting Bonn! They went ahead and did it too! If there was any proof needed for the oft repeated Afghan refrain that Pakistan is the biggest obstacle in achieving peace; you have given them proof.- Idiots ! They are rubbing it in at Bonn. There ! didn't we say so ?
Ironically Pakistani Army is making these rank bad decisions for the love of their country. Their policies have continuously backfired time and again from kashmir to kargil ;even when faced with a comparatively weaker adversary -India. And now they have an entirely different beast to counter! Only time can tell what kind of misery will they bring upon the hapless people of Pakistan this time round. Their policies have great margin for error which they compound by having no room for any doubt!
Even now the policy makers are not willing to take on board the fact that their stealth is exposed. More than anyone else Pakistan should realize that similar to themselves, America is more of a corporation that has got a nation. US inc. will not let go of Afghanistan like they did twenty years ago. They have too much invested in it now. Taliban and ISI proxies will have a tough time repeating their old success. That ,if it happens would actually be catastrophic for Pakistan; sinking them far deeper in trouble. In such a situation the corporation will wrest control by force and Pakistan will be right in the middle of that maelstrom. And I do not see any appreciation of the fact this is not just a bipolar world any more. There are several other forces in the picture and they are not going to be pushovers either. Just banking on nuclear blackmail to get your way through is fraught with huge dangers ; not only to the nuclear deterrent but to the entire nation itself. One can sense Pakistani army taking over direct control of day to day policies and messing with the civilian oversight again. Specially the way Husain Haqqani has been eased out of Washington D.C.. At the same time Pakistan's other ambassadors are being chopped and changed in droves as we speak. And the way zardari has suddenly developed heart trouble and fled the country ostensibly for treatment gives a lot of weight to the theory that Pakistan army has staged a soft coup while keeping a civilian facade.
Without taking anything away from the 26 odd servicemen who got killed in the recent Nato attack, one must ask why Pakistan has not shown such a strong reaction when several times more civilians were the victims ? The real truth may never be known but the Nato story that those gunships fired in support of their ground troops who were coming under fire from or close to Pakistan army posts , is very plausible. Specially to an Indian ear . Providing covering fire to retreating or infiltrating Islamic terrorist bands is an old and well worn trick that Pakistani army posts have been using in Kashmir sector for ever and ever. It comes as no surprise that they were using it in the west too.
On the other hand their contention that NATO attacked these post without a good reason may also have a grain of truth in it. However if that was the case ,Pakistan's reactions are bewildering to say the least! If this was a warning shot across their bows by NATO; why have they created such intense war hysteria among their populace ? What is it they are guilty of? What are they hiding from their own population? Blocking supply routes gives them practically zero leverage. Already over 60% of NATO supplies are routed through air or "northern routes", not Pakistan. NATO has been quitely preparing for this day for most of last year or so. Reportedly they have six months supplies in hand. They are not breaking any sweat! Retaking Shamsi airbase may put some temporary breaks on drones but one shudders to think what other alternatives Nato has access to. Long range stealth bombers; missiles.....,it can soon turn into Pakistan's worst nightmare! Why is it hard to understand that a negotiated, peaceful and independent Afghanistan is in everyone's best interests.
Of all the stupid things one could have done the worst was boycotting Bonn! They went ahead and did it too! If there was any proof needed for the oft repeated Afghan refrain that Pakistan is the biggest obstacle in achieving peace; you have given them proof.- Idiots ! They are rubbing it in at Bonn. There ! didn't we say so ?
Ironically Pakistani Army is making these rank bad decisions for the love of their country. Their policies have continuously backfired time and again from kashmir to kargil ;even when faced with a comparatively weaker adversary -India. And now they have an entirely different beast to counter! Only time can tell what kind of misery will they bring upon the hapless people of Pakistan this time round. Their policies have great margin for error which they compound by having no room for any doubt!
