Monday, August 19, 2013

Mad in Pakistan!

The world is around 4.5 billion years old. Evidence of human activity in the Indian subcontinent has been found to be almost 500,000 years old. Some of the oldest civilizations of the world were found in these geographical locations. There is some argument about how old exactly but the concept of India itself is very old. Much  older than any other country in Africa ,Europe or anywhere else. India's cultural influence easily extended beyond the Indian Sub continent to Thailand, Burma , Indonesia and Malaysia and Tibet on one side and Afghanistan on the other. It exists even today and is quite apparent to even the biased eyed.

Various kingdoms and civilizations controlled different geographical boundaries at various times in history; but India is really not a line on the map. Cliched it maybe but it is a state of mind. If you feel Indian, you are one. As Arabs invaded their country and imposed Islam  on a Zoroastrian Iran;  that community migrated over from Iran many centuries ago and landed in the present day Gujarat.They are still known as Parsi( from Iran)  and they still follow their foreign faith; yet no one has any doubts about them being anything but Indians today. Least of all they themselves. Hundreds of individuals participated the other day in Manhattan ,NYC in the India day parade. Had anyone checked their passports they would have counted only a handful with Indian ones. Who were the rest ? Technically all non Indians ;yet  all of them feel strongly Indian even though they are the citizens of a different state.

There are countless lessons to be learned from India's ancient wisdom,culture and history. Some however must be learned from the recent history as well. Last 70 odd years should have taught us that as there are individuals outside of India that feel and act Indian ; there are individuals inside  India, that do not! Further it should have told us that a bulk of them control their own territory outside of present day Indian control and call it Pakistan. Genetically , culturally and historically Indians ; these individuals completely reject their Indian roots. Do not ever treat them as such. They want to be someone else. They are not sure what but 'Indian' is not one of them! Kapish ?

Once we get that basic fact through our confused minds ,  we can begin to design the contours of our relationship with each other. It is not about who is right and who is wrong! It is not about good Indian Vs. evil Pakistani! It is only about being realistic and responding to actual situations on the ground. Unfortunately India's Pakistan policy has been determined by misty eyed, geriatric brains; completely addled by the grief of their  homes  lost several decades ago in obscure places like Gah and Jehlum. Their pining has incapacitated their analytic faculties and their responses have swung like a pendulum from military confrontation to taking a bus trip. In between they have  wound down intelligence assets in Pakistan; paid obeisance at the grave of the founder of Pakistan and even organized candle lit vigils at the border too. As far as one can tell none of of this has worked. We are where we were!

Pakistan's India policy is far more clear. They have learned their lessons from the history rather well. They know that Indian culture has the infinite capacity to overcome other subcultures. They fully know that they are a small nation that needs a force multiplier. They know that their resources are no match and they have to find ways to get a bigger bang for their buck. They know that they need to keep India unhinged or it will become an existential threat to them just by simply being there. No matter who led whatever form of government in Pakistan they have followed their own advice and stayed with the plan all these 65 odd years. Starting with inculcating an aversion of everything Indian through school system to successfully pursuing nuclear capability and running world's most efficient terrorist operations. And from blank refusal to let Indian artistes perform in Pakistan to dragging their feet endlessly on giving it MFN status. They are doing it all.

Pakistan is acutely conscious of its fault lines. They know that the idea of Pakistan lies buried in Dhaka ( they blame India for it) and they do not have even a sad apology left as a rationale for a separate country( keep chanting the 'Islam' mantra). They are bothered by the fact that there are more Muslims in India than there are in entire Pakistan and there are a whole lot of them that have done exceedingly well. From film stars to business tycoons and from army generals to being presidents of the state; Muslims have figured prominently. So they continue to harp on Kashmir. They are hanging in by the very last thread in Baluchistan and are now faced with the spectre of a 250,000 strong Afghan army on their western border. Army that is being trained by and is friendly with India. What do you expect them to do?

Notorious terrorist Abdul Karim Tunda was caught recently with a perfectly valid Pakistani passport. How did the document get issued? Fact is that Pakistan will always be attracted to asymmetrical warfare and terrorism as their leading edge. They have always exercised this option and always will. From their standpoint they do not have  other options. Starting now and leading upto 2014 draw down from Afghanistan; these measures in combination with nuclear blackmail will be deployed more and more by them. No Nawaz Sharief will change these policies , especially Nawaz Sharief in his present term. Prominent politician Sheikh Rashid and retired General Hamid Gul ; both close to Pakistani security establishment and terrorist networks ,openly talk about making a first nuclear strike to take down India even if means total annihilation of Pakistan when India retaliates. Do not blame Pakistan, they are threatening Mutual Assured Destruction as a blackmailing point to circumscribe Indian plans. They  however are not mad. This tried and tested policy has paid them rich dividends and been very cost effective  to boot. India has to decide if issuing press releases in the media about dead soldiers on the border and mouthing inanities about peace and brotherhood in the region are adequate responses ? 

India will need a  short term policy that  arrests this situation right here and right now !  They will also need a long term action plan that not only addresses Pakistan's concerns substantially but also has enough teeth to impose an unbearably prohibitive cost on any  misadventure. Recent history however tells us that we should not hold our breath for anything spectacular from the Indian state . Even a reasonable counter is really too much to ask for. They do not look like it! At least not yet!