Wine Colors No. 2, "11x "14, oil on linen by Mary Beth Gaiarin
Some kind of history was made recently when the world witnessed a transition from one civilian government; which actually completed its term in office , to another civilian government in Pakistan. This was a first in their history. First time people voted to affect a change of guard in a democratic way. Pakistan army's 111 brigade , famous worldwide as a coup specialist stayed home for once. This election is historical and will be considered a watershed in Pakistan's history. It is worth celebrating for those reasons. Pakistani's can genuinely pat themselves on the back.
A change this big has its own dynamics that will carry far and wide. Or is this a change? Primarily the people will have a lot of expectations and hopes from these events. What can they expect ? Economic well being; probity in public life; safety and security; health and education opportunities. That's what they need. Does it look like they are about to get it? For several years now the country itself has earned a dubious distinction in the eyes of the world as the epicenter of terrorism; untrustworthy ally; on the verge of economic collapse; most likely to fail ..... and several other such descriptions ; none very flattering. Will the world have to revise its opinion after this election?
As for Pakistan's neighbours; China is a close friend with friendship " higher than the Himalayas and deeper than the sea". Verbiage apart that means an unequal master and servant relationship. Iran on the other side is a brother Islamic nation. Although everyone realizes that given the Saudi Influence on Pakistan and its own Sunni Punjabi mindset; this brotherhood with a Shia Iran has a very thin shell. Well there is Afghanistan too. Another brother nation although of late there are several reports of 'not exactly brotherly', exchanges of fire on the border! There is an obvious lack of trust in each others motives. Afghans are certain that Pakistan is bent on making them their fifth province and Pakistan is sure that Afghans are sitting in India 's lap. And yes , there is the BIG I; India! It is everything Pakistan is not and does not want to be.That is the crux of the entire gamut of problems between the two. Can all these neighbours expect something new ?
These elections are strange in the sense that although so much happened and so much seemed to have happened; nothing really happened! Imran Khan's supporters may not agree but despite accusations and counter accusations of fraud the election results largely reflect the public mandate. Fact is that Imran Khan's tsunami lost steam mid way. He did get a lot of middle class votes and about 30 seats in the national assembly though. Not quite enough to be the king or even the kingmaker. His controversial stance on the Drones and his soft corner for the Taliban confused a lot of people. His "born again" Islamic idiom sounded a little hollow in the light of his own rather colourful past.His being absolutely clueless on economics and governance did not help matters either. He said one thing to an Indian Channel , another to a western one and quite another in public meetings. Widely considered a proxy for the army, he did register a strong presence on the national scene though and a chance to form a provincial government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Something that will come and bite him later.
Nawaz Sharief ; the winner , did all those things in a more sophisticated way. He hobnobbed with Islamist too and even gave them party tickets. Reportedly the individual who produced the fatwa that got Salman Taseer butchered in broad daylight was among them. He also highlighted some day to day problems like Load shedding and people lapped his populist rhetoric up. Although any sane person will realize that you can not add watts overnight ; neither can you stop the losses as a result of faulty distribution lines and shortages of infrastructure like transformers etc. Yet he promised to get it right within ninety days and he may deliver too! How ? Because monsoons will hit the country by then and the power demand will taper off with cooler temperatures ! Sharief was a creation of the army in the first place and this time round he has been very careful not to ruffle their feathers. In fact he seems to have already done a deal to go soft on Musharraf and give him an out as a small sop. To expect him to act around the wishes of the army in the matters of foreign policy will be foolhardy. Specially when it comes to Afghanistan and India. Both will assume a large significance as the deadline for the draw down comes nearer. Ditto on the matters of Trade and MFN status etc. Despite PML-N's 130 odd seats, one shall still have to watch the army for all of that.
Other than them ,amongst winners are Jamait Ul ulema and Jamait-i -Islami who got 15 seats between them and 27 independents , several of whom have already joined PML- N. More than the winning combinations it is far more instructive to learn about who has lost at the hustings. Firstly the woman of Pakistan lost big time when in a large part of the country several ordinarily opposing parties agreed not to allow woman to cast their votes. It is not difficult to imagine what does it point to. Not a peep came out of Mr. tsunami's mouth. Secondly any combination even remotely secular ; professing a modicum of inclusiveness or even considered middle of the road in name only ; was decimated at the polls. ANP was completely put on the back foot by incessant bombings of their meetings and workers. In fact they had to stop organizing public meetings much before the campaign got truly underway. Who was bombing them out of the elections is known to all but nobody lifted a finger to help. Parties that got spared this violent bombing were PTI , PML-N and the Islamic ones. This must be another clue to what is in store. ANP did not get much vote anyway and just managed 1 seat. MQM was under attack too for similar reasons but the fact is that it has also lost a large chunk of its vote to other parties. They could muster 18 seats only; all in and around Karachi. Rural Sindh was barely held by PPP with a tally of 31; reducing them all to being a regional party from being a national one.
Baluchistan may as well already be a separate entity. They almost did not participate in this exercise, so thin was their presence at the polling booths. Trouble is that bulk of Nawaz Sharief's wins have all come from Punjab. Pretty soon when the euphoria of winning dies down, this will become his Achilles heel. More things change , more they remain the same. Pakistan will be ruled by the same Punjabi Sunni establishment that has ruled it for most of her history. Regional imbalances and grouses will deepen and battle lines are clearly etched along provincial lines. Both PML-N and PTI are the children of the same deep state and establishment .Both have close ties to Islamists and most importantly both of them actually have the mandate of the people. It should give you a picture of the direction Pakistan as a state is headed towards.
Wish Nawaz Sharief well. However cosmetics apart, only a blind fool will expect a miracle or any major deviation from existing state policies and methodology during his time in office. Sadly it is all old wine in an old bottle. So let him prove me wrong!
A change this big has its own dynamics that will carry far and wide. Or is this a change? Primarily the people will have a lot of expectations and hopes from these events. What can they expect ? Economic well being; probity in public life; safety and security; health and education opportunities. That's what they need. Does it look like they are about to get it? For several years now the country itself has earned a dubious distinction in the eyes of the world as the epicenter of terrorism; untrustworthy ally; on the verge of economic collapse; most likely to fail ..... and several other such descriptions ; none very flattering. Will the world have to revise its opinion after this election?
As for Pakistan's neighbours; China is a close friend with friendship " higher than the Himalayas and deeper than the sea". Verbiage apart that means an unequal master and servant relationship. Iran on the other side is a brother Islamic nation. Although everyone realizes that given the Saudi Influence on Pakistan and its own Sunni Punjabi mindset; this brotherhood with a Shia Iran has a very thin shell. Well there is Afghanistan too. Another brother nation although of late there are several reports of 'not exactly brotherly', exchanges of fire on the border! There is an obvious lack of trust in each others motives. Afghans are certain that Pakistan is bent on making them their fifth province and Pakistan is sure that Afghans are sitting in India 's lap. And yes , there is the BIG I; India! It is everything Pakistan is not and does not want to be.That is the crux of the entire gamut of problems between the two. Can all these neighbours expect something new ?
These elections are strange in the sense that although so much happened and so much seemed to have happened; nothing really happened! Imran Khan's supporters may not agree but despite accusations and counter accusations of fraud the election results largely reflect the public mandate. Fact is that Imran Khan's tsunami lost steam mid way. He did get a lot of middle class votes and about 30 seats in the national assembly though. Not quite enough to be the king or even the kingmaker. His controversial stance on the Drones and his soft corner for the Taliban confused a lot of people. His "born again" Islamic idiom sounded a little hollow in the light of his own rather colourful past.His being absolutely clueless on economics and governance did not help matters either. He said one thing to an Indian Channel , another to a western one and quite another in public meetings. Widely considered a proxy for the army, he did register a strong presence on the national scene though and a chance to form a provincial government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Something that will come and bite him later.
Nawaz Sharief ; the winner , did all those things in a more sophisticated way. He hobnobbed with Islamist too and even gave them party tickets. Reportedly the individual who produced the fatwa that got Salman Taseer butchered in broad daylight was among them. He also highlighted some day to day problems like Load shedding and people lapped his populist rhetoric up. Although any sane person will realize that you can not add watts overnight ; neither can you stop the losses as a result of faulty distribution lines and shortages of infrastructure like transformers etc. Yet he promised to get it right within ninety days and he may deliver too! How ? Because monsoons will hit the country by then and the power demand will taper off with cooler temperatures ! Sharief was a creation of the army in the first place and this time round he has been very careful not to ruffle their feathers. In fact he seems to have already done a deal to go soft on Musharraf and give him an out as a small sop. To expect him to act around the wishes of the army in the matters of foreign policy will be foolhardy. Specially when it comes to Afghanistan and India. Both will assume a large significance as the deadline for the draw down comes nearer. Ditto on the matters of Trade and MFN status etc. Despite PML-N's 130 odd seats, one shall still have to watch the army for all of that.
Other than them ,amongst winners are Jamait Ul ulema and Jamait-i -Islami who got 15 seats between them and 27 independents , several of whom have already joined PML- N. More than the winning combinations it is far more instructive to learn about who has lost at the hustings. Firstly the woman of Pakistan lost big time when in a large part of the country several ordinarily opposing parties agreed not to allow woman to cast their votes. It is not difficult to imagine what does it point to. Not a peep came out of Mr. tsunami's mouth. Secondly any combination even remotely secular ; professing a modicum of inclusiveness or even considered middle of the road in name only ; was decimated at the polls. ANP was completely put on the back foot by incessant bombings of their meetings and workers. In fact they had to stop organizing public meetings much before the campaign got truly underway. Who was bombing them out of the elections is known to all but nobody lifted a finger to help. Parties that got spared this violent bombing were PTI , PML-N and the Islamic ones. This must be another clue to what is in store. ANP did not get much vote anyway and just managed 1 seat. MQM was under attack too for similar reasons but the fact is that it has also lost a large chunk of its vote to other parties. They could muster 18 seats only; all in and around Karachi. Rural Sindh was barely held by PPP with a tally of 31; reducing them all to being a regional party from being a national one.
Baluchistan may as well already be a separate entity. They almost did not participate in this exercise, so thin was their presence at the polling booths. Trouble is that bulk of Nawaz Sharief's wins have all come from Punjab. Pretty soon when the euphoria of winning dies down, this will become his Achilles heel. More things change , more they remain the same. Pakistan will be ruled by the same Punjabi Sunni establishment that has ruled it for most of her history. Regional imbalances and grouses will deepen and battle lines are clearly etched along provincial lines. Both PML-N and PTI are the children of the same deep state and establishment .Both have close ties to Islamists and most importantly both of them actually have the mandate of the people. It should give you a picture of the direction Pakistan as a state is headed towards.
Wish Nawaz Sharief well. However cosmetics apart, only a blind fool will expect a miracle or any major deviation from existing state policies and methodology during his time in office. Sadly it is all old wine in an old bottle. So let him prove me wrong!
